Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
